7.2 Accounting versus
Economic Dividends
In
the last chapter we defined the intrinsic value of a firm's
stock as follows.
The intrinsic value is the present value
of future dividends discounted at the appropriate risk adjusted
interest rate (the cost of equity capital).
We now
distinguish between
accounting and
economic dividends by making the following observations.
The accounting system measures what dividends were paid
given the legal constraints that dividends can only be paid out
of current accounting income or accumulated retained earnings.
In contrast, an economic dividend is the dividend that
could be paid by a
firm. This implies
that it is not determined by a firm’s actual dividend policy,
but of course, we need to formalize what is meant by “could be
paid.”
To motivate
this, consider the following definition of economic income due
to Hicks (1939): economic
income is the maximum value one can consume during the week
and still expect to be as well off at the end of the week as at
the beginning."
For a firm,
an economic dividend
is the maximum amount that could be paid without hampering the
firms operations, diminishing its productive capacity, or growth
potential. The
intrinsic value is then redefined as the present value of
economic dividends.
In practice, the economic dividend is measured by the
free cash flow to equity, which is defined as “the amount of cash
that can be paid to the stockholders of the company after all
expenses, reinvestment and debt repayment.”
Since the free cash flow to equity takes into account
reinvestment and all expenses, it is conceptually equivalent to
an economic dividend.
In this
approach, it does not matter whether or not a stock actually
pays dividends when assessing its intrinsic value.
What matters is its ability to generate free cash flows.
Example: Free Cash Flow and Amazon.com
At the time
of the writing of this section, Amazon.com (AMZN) traded around
$120 per share even though it pays no (accounting) dividends.
However, Amazon.com was generating free cash flows. In
fact, in Amazon.com’s 2009 10-K filing, Item 7, the management
is very clear about their focus on free cash flows:
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and
Results of Operations: “Our
financial focus is on long-term, sustainable growth in free cash
flow per share. Free cash flow is driven primarily by increasing
operating income and efficiently managing working capital and
capital expenditures.”